Three-quarters of business leaders believe there will be a Grexit within a year, according to a survey of IoD members
Three in four IoD members think it’s likely Greece will be forced to leave the European single currency within the next 12 months, compared to two per cent who think it is very unlikely, according to the research.
Those questioned believe that the most probable outcome of a ‘Grexit’ is a messy default, which negatively affects financial markets and creates pressure on other euro members.
This outcome was considered likely by nearly two-thirds of the business leaders surveyed, while 45 per cent thought there was a risk of widespread bank runs in other southern European countries.
Longer-term, 45 per cent of the members surveyed believe there is a good chance a Grexit will be followed by other countries leaving the euro.
While the direct exposure of IoD members to Greece is limited, with 77 per cent having no business interests in the country, nearly half think that a Grexit from the eurozone will have a negative impact on the UK.
“British businesses are nervous about the potential knock-on effects of a Grexit on the UK economy,” says Simon Walker, IoD director general.
“They have reduced their direct exposure to Greece in recent years, but are worried that a messy divorce from the single currency would shake markets across the continent and destabilise the already fragile economies of other southern European countries.
“IoD members do not expect the chaotic situation in Greece they see on the evening news to end anytime soon.
“There is a heated debate going on about whether it would be better for the Greek people if they left the Euro, but it’s clear that their decision at the referendum on Sunday has significant implications for the whole of Europe.”
For the full survey results, visit iod.com