George Buckley, chief economist, Deutsche Bank

Since this recession began, the UK economy has contracted by over four per cent, a larger fall in output than occurred in the 1990s slowdown and closing in on the scale of the early 1980s downturn. Almost every part of the economy is being squeezed, from consumer spending and investment to industrial production and financial services.

But there are encouraging signs. The monthly business surveys, which are more timely than official data, tell us that we may be past the worst. More specifically, they are indicating that the rate of contraction is easing. If current rates of improvement in these indicators are sustained it would not be too long until output is growing again.

What is driving this tentative recovery? First, economies don't shrink forever, they eventually revert to a rate of growth reflective of the long-term pace of productivity and population growth, both of which are positive. Moreover, research by the IMF suggests that the chances of remaining in a recession for longer than a year and a half are very low, particularly if the government is doing its bit.

That brings us to the second driver of recovery—the huge amount of stimulus to support the economy. This has included interest rate cuts of more than five per cent, the Bank of England's programme of asset purchases (quantitative easing), the Treasury providing a fiscal boost (primarily by cutting VAT), sterling having fallen by a quarter since the start of 2007 and commodity prices being significantly lower than they were a year ago.

While it seems very likely that the recovery will continue, there are questions about its scale and whether it will be durable. Authorities around the world will need to maintain stimulus packages for some time to come; withdrawing support could crimp the recovery before it has a chance to get going.

Dick Stewart, managing director, Strategic Insights International

Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank recently claimed there were signs of a pause in the recession. And the OECD cited four economies as being in a "strong slowdown", where each may have reached a "possible trough". Trichet's remarks were taken to suggest "green shoots" may be appearing. But care must be taken in predicting things in this slowdown because it is global and quite different from other downturns. It was caused by over-speculation in financial institutions, not by industrial decline.

Recession is quantified as a decline in GDP. But more resilient measures are household employment, wages, home ownership, discretionary expenditure, investments and the value of asset-based pensions. Traditional metrics are insufficient in the world of borderless service economies.

The lessons of history show that recovery takes years. The 1929 recession and the subsequent Depression did not end until mid-1933. And the 1980s UK recession lasted more than two years. So what is really happening? Governments worldwide are intervening to protect economies, but it is unclear if they have a full assessment of the total economic need. Hence they will keep increasing their share of ownership in financial institutions. This intervention is likely to be the reason for a slowdown in the recessionary trend. But once the lowest point is reached there will be a period of "bouncing" along the bottom until real recovery begins to take hold.

Like any good sailor, we must track the weather and seek advice on how to navigate our ship through stormy waters, not sail blind hoping the worst is over.