The Brussels rumour machine is cranking up with speculation about the likely complexion of the new European Commission
The European Commission, the EU's policy and administrative engine, is due a change of leadership this autumn. In the UK, we are used to hearing disparaging comments about Eurocrats. It has become a national hobby to whinge about decisions being made in Brussels that affect domestic interests. But UK businesses should take a lively interest in the new European Commission—and in which portfolio the UK manages to secure.
Although European Commissioners are meant to be impartial to national influence, one fact of EU political life is that all Member States recognise the kudos of managing a major portfolio at European level. All European Union governments, including the UK, take this changing of the guard in Brussels very seriously and we can expect to see jockeying of positions by governments, aiming to secure plum—usually big, economic—portfolios in the run-up to the new Commission being announced in November.
So, which portfolio should the UK be gunning for? From a business perspective, particularly during these difficult economic times, there are arguably five portfolios worth pitching for.
Enterprise & Industry is currently led by Germany's Gunter Verheugen, who has already signalled his intention to retire. Germany, in common with all other Member States, has yet to nominate its new Commissioner. Mr Verheugen could be replaced by CDU politician Peter Hintze or Martin Schultz, the leader of the Socialist Party Group in the European Parliament. But there is no reason why Germany should keep this portfolio: whoever is at its helm is responsible for driving EU industrial policy, so it is surely one the UK might have its eye on at a time when factories are closing and unemployment is rising sharply.
Economic & Monetary Affairs is also key. Joaquin Almunia could be reappointed by the Spanish government to serve a second term. Much will depend on domestic political manoeuvring and also on the likelihood of Spain hanging on to the role of the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, currently held by Javier Solana.
The Competition post is currently held by the Netherlands' Neelie Kroes, one of 10 female members of the 27-strong Commission. Corridor gossip in Brussels has it that the Netherlands was able to secure this high-profile post because it was ready and able to field a female candidate, but such talk undermines Kroes's strong performance at the helm. Kroes will be a hard act to follow, but is unlikely to return to Brussels since her party is not a member of the Dutch government coalition. At a time of difficult decisions with respect to state aid for floundering European industries and increased promotion by some governments of national industrial champions, this post will be eyed up by several governments, including Britain's.
The Internal Market and Services portfolio, responsible for safeguarding the free movement of goods and services, is currently led by the swashbuckling Irishman, Charlie McCreevy. Consistent rumour has it that McCreevy does not plan to return. The current buzz in Brussels and Paris is that France is keen to snaffle this post for its former Foreign Minister, Michel Barnier. France's current commissioner, Jacques Barrot, now responsible for Justice, Freedom and Security, will step down. Given the importance of this department's thinking for the financial services sector and the key role this sector has for the UK economy, could this be one area where the UK might square up against France?
Britain currently has responsibility for managing trade policy, formerly held by Business Secretary Lord Mandelson, but handed over to Catherine Ashton when Mandelson returned to the domestic front bench. Baroness Ashton is leading policy decisions affecting the EU's trade relations with other countries. We wait to see how this shakes down with the new US administration. But trade relations with other countries—Japan, China, India, Russia, Brazil—will continue to preoccupy those governments anxious to stamp out the spectre of protectionism. Baroness Ashton is apparently keen to return to Brussels but former British MEP and current Transport Secretary, Geoff Hoon, also has Brussels in his sights.
Louise Harvey is a Partner at Blueprint Partners, a public affairs, policy advice and strategic communications consultancy in Brussels.
Posted 19 March 2009 : Director.co.uk
