These days I talk to audiences about the sound barrier. I take them back to the late 1940s and early 1950s, when test pilots were slamming into an invisible but deadly mid-air obstruction as they tried to fly ever faster. Aircraft broke apart as shock waves tore their wings away.
But then one pilot did something crazy, in sheer desperation. In a power dive, he found his controls locked and instead of pulling the control column back, he pushed it forward. Unexpectedly, the aircraft recovered.
Then I make the connection: as technologies and business models crash into today's sustainability barrier, many are beginning to break apart. It started with insecticides, asbestos and chlorofluorocarbons, and is spreading to carbon-intensive markets. To survive, politicians and business leaders must reverse the controls on their economies, value chains and companies.
Now a study published by Germany's federal environment ministry makes the same point, using the latest mathematical models. Entitled A New Growth Path for Europe, its conclusions will shock anyone who believes that tackling climate change with increasingly tough emission targets will lead to a net drag on the economy.
At a time when the European Union has set 20 per cent greenhouse emission reduction targets, and many business leaders complain that this is hurting prospects for growth, prosperity and job creation, the study says "it is time for boldness". Instead of sticking with 20 per cent, Europe should make "a decisive move to a 30 per cent target".
If this is done well, by 2020 the rate of European growth could be boosted by up to 0.6 per cent a year, European investments would rise from 18 per cent to 22 per cent of GDP, GDP itself would grow by up to six per cent both in old and new member states, and up to six million jobs would be created.
The new models assume that tougher controls trigger greater additional investment, stimulating learning by doing across the entire economy. This, in turn, boosts competitiveness and spurs further economic growth, exceeding the expectations of investors and fuelling further investment.
John Elkington is executive chairman of Volans (www.volans.com) and non-executive director at SustainAbility (www.sustainability.com)
