Do you remember the 1960s? If you do, you'll recall that the swinging stopped short of the decade's end. In the same way, the 1980s started in 1979
or 1977 depending on your view. As for the 2000s, the decade of "no return to boom and bust", ended when the bubble burst in mid-2008. What Harold Macmillan referred to as "events, dear boy, events" always seem to mess up the neat chronology of history.
Taken in this light, the dawn of the new decade may not signify much. We start where we left off, in the midst of a recession and wrapped in the fog of uncertainty. Predicting the future is tricky but it seems a safe bet that this will be another tough year. At best there is a lingering sense of stagnation, something Jo Owen describes as a "treacle economy". He predicts this will get worse after the election, because the probable change in government will bring with it severe cuts in public spending and possibly rises in taxation. It's arguable the election could put an end to any fragile recovery—if that's what we're in. It's a return to the old pattern of boom, election, slump. Except here it's slump, election, bigger slump.
So why get out of bed this year? Because as any sailor or entrepreneur will tell you, tough, challenging conditions are the most exciting. Finding innovative and creative solutions is easier when you're up against the economic elements. It's why the best new ideas and businesses seem to appear at these times. Some of the many companies and products launched this year will fail, but many will thrive, some will come to define the new decade and one or two will change our lives. That's the thing about the future, it's just so hard to foretell.
But if directors can't predict or control the future, they can at least prepare for it. Too many UK firms get into trouble because the leader fails to plan for succession. As ex-Bupa boss Val Gooding explains to Jane Simms, this should be the top priority for any leader, particularly after they have been in a post for some time. While surveys repeatedly show that most leaders agree that preparing the business for their departure is a key part of their role, recent high-profile cases, including M&S and ITV, show best practice often falls short of popular theory. Perhaps this, at least, is predictable.
Richard Cree
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