Is it advisable, even for a thriving business, to aim for continuous growth, when recent history suggests that such a strategy is bound, at some point, to fail?
Delivering profitable growth year after year is the number one, non-negotiable imperative facing today's business leaders," writes Jean-Claude Larréché, the highly regarded professor of marketing at French business school INSEAD, in his new book The Momentum Effect.
As Larréché says, many companies struggle to meet this imperative, others achieve it in fits and starts, but only a select few consistently exceed it, sometimes extravagantly. And these "world beaters" succeed through "the momentum effect", which Larréché defines as "a tremendously potent phenomenon by which, under specific conditions, exceptional organic growth is created—growth that feeds on itself."
The growth such firms achieve is exceptional in terms of both pace and quality. They grow very rapidly, but in a way that generates higher profits and consumes fewer resources. But, notes Larréché, in most cases the momentum effect proves transitory. It might last 10, 20, 30—or even, as in the case of IBM, 50—years, and then disappear almost overnight, because a business's leaders fail to understand or nurture its drivers.
Most of the book is devoted to identifying the drivers of momentum and how companies can harness them in order to "deliver continuous exceptional growth year after year". This compelling promise, combined with Larréché's formidable reputation, should guarantee high sales. But is he encouraging business leaders to worship a false god?
The experience of Rentokil is salutary. The commitment to deliver 20 per cent annual profit and earnings growth became a millstone round former chief executive Sir Clive Thompson's neck. Although he achieved it for 17 out of his 22 years at the helm, the day the strategy failed marked the beginning of a spiral of decline from which the company has never recovered.
In 1996, knowing it had to do something different to sustain the 20 per cent growth target, Rentokil-Initial made the massive and uncharacteristic acquisition of BET for £2bn, tripling the size of the company overnight. The deal not only distracted management's attention from the core Rentokil business, it also brought with it some low-quality divisions, which the company was unwilling to divest because of the negative impact on earnings.
When, in 1999, Sir Clive announced that growth might only be 10 per cent for that year, the share price collapsed and he was ousted in a boardroom coup five years later.
Larréché acknowledges that companies often lose momentum due to slowly beginning to pay less attention to many of the key drivers of their success, including employees, suppliers, and local communities. "Momentum is dynamic. Unless it is constantly nurtured, it will ebb away," he says.
But, arguably, the focus on stretch growth targets must, in itself, dangerously dilute management attention, particularly when it involves the kind of disruptive activities Rentokil felt forced to engage in.
Today, even Tesco's relatively modest philosophy of continuous improvement, manifested in its "Every little helps" strapline, looks vulnerable. International expansion is stretching management talent, while—regardless of the accuracy of the amounts reported—criticisms over its use of off-shore tax schemes is compounding the unfavourable publicity that successful companies often attract.
Larréché claims that Tesco has "unlimited potential" to grow. This is misleading and unrealistic. If Tesco was to grow at 10 per cent a year for the next 20 years, it would be seven times bigger than it is today, with profits of around £20bn on sales of £350bn. If it grew at 20 per cent it would be almost 40 times bigger, with profits of over £100bn.
Surely, what all shareholders want is the sort of steady growth and longevity that come from a company taking an inclusive approach to all its stakeholders. Aren't the real successes those businesses that create satisfying work for their staff, harmonious communities and environments, vibrant supply chains and satisfied customers? If they can do this and manage shareholder expectations, they are much more likely to deliver sustainable returns than those pursuing futile global dominance or immortality.
