In celebration of its 50th anniversary New Scientist recently treated its readers to one of those perennially fascinating science fiction-style glimpses into the future. Among the predictions made by some of the planet’s most prominent scientists were that, within the next 50 years, we will find extra-terrestrial life, we will have started to colonise other planets, we will have centenarians who are as productive and vigorous as today’s 60-year-olds, and a device will exist to allow us to experience the thoughts and emotions of animals.
It’s easy to think of such a brave new world as the stuff of fiction, or existing in some sort of parallel universe, rather than further along a continuum from where we are at the moment and where we used to be. But as futurist Leonard Sweet points out, the future is not something we enter. It is something we create.
This connection was brought into stark reality recently with the publication of Sir Nicholas Stern’s apocalyptic report into the human and economic cost of global warming. The risks of inaction are high, and time is running out, warned Sir Nicholas. But according to the Carbon Neutral Company, just 80 out of the FTSE-100 companies have identified climate change as a business risk, and only 38 of them have set targets for emissions reduction.
The world is changing fast and furiously, making the study of futures essential in order to map our progress through an increasingly complex web of possible scenarios. But although future gazing is growing ever more popular among organisations keen to be seen to be doing the right thing, our ability to act on what such activities tell us remains limited—particularly when the change required is difficult or unpalatable.
By contrast, organisations respond to new fads and whims at the drop of a hat. This is because doing so is relatively easy, and it conveys the illusion that they are keeping abreast of change. This is reflected in the growing number of job titles that now include the words “innovation” or "insight". A quick trawl of the internet reveals a rich assortment of futuristic-sounding monikers, including VP of Cool, Thought Jockey, Director of Emerging Thought and Curator of the Enlightened Orchard.
It would be interesting to know how many of these names are the result of consultancy assignments from what Stewart Brand in The Clock of the Long Now describes as “futurismists”. These are pretend futurists, who practise futurism—an often highly subjective belief structure—and exude “futurismo”. Genuine future study, on the other hand, is rigorous and objective. Its practitioners look forward in the same way that skilled historians look backwards.
Organisations should make sure they seek advice from respected futurists, not flaky futurismists, or they will make flawed decisions. Electrolux has just launched an entertainment-based fridge, which includes a computer, phone, camera, television, speakers and MP3 player. Yes, the kitchen is increasingly the hub of the home, but at £5,000 a throw, the device is destined to remain niche.
Equally dangerous is pursuing “false trends”, which, if unchecked, could become self-fulfilling. For example, the recent broadside launched against parents by the Archbishop of Canterbury and a number of leading children’s authors and educationalists cited not one piece of evidence in support of their contention that parents are failing to support their children. By contrast, research by the respected Future Foundation revealed that parents spend far more time with their children than they did 30 years ago, and that children today are as happy, if not happier, than they have ever been.
Science fiction offers no real clues to our future. What does is listening, looking, reading, asking "what if?" and being sceptical rather than suggestible about every emerging trend. It’s an approach modern management thinkers such as Charles Handy and the late Peter Drucker have practised for some 50 years. They would presumably agree with the comment of William Gibson, the futurologists’ futurologist, that: "The future has already happened; it just isn’t very well distributed."
Jane Simms is the former editor of Financial Director and Marketing Business.
